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Troy79
12-31-2012, 09:56 PM
Boise State has decided to stay in the Mountain West thus probably putting the dagger in the BIG EAST. Guys, this move could have a huge impact on how things will unfold here in our neck of the woods. San Diego State has a clause in their agreement that it can get out of their contract with the BIG EAST, at no expense, if they don't have a 'western partner school'. The Mountain West is looking for at least one more school to get their conference up to 12 football members, thus SDSU will be a logical fit. If the BIG EAST is to survive, it is my guess that they will raid C-USA again, which will then impact the Sun Belt again. It is very possible that at the end of the day, the remaining C-USA schools and the current 8 Sun Belt schools, could merge together to create a super conference, since neither will have a 12 member conference if we each stand alone.

Here is the story on Boise State:

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/8796807/boise-state-broncos-staying-mountain-west-conference-all

2013 should be a very interesting year for our future as a member of the Sun Belt Conference.

Go TROY!

Troy79
12-31-2012, 10:50 PM
To follow up on the above article, I found some interesting quotes made today from the Commissioner of the Mountain West:

"We felt stable about 10 teams, but we feel a lot more stable now that we'll have 11," MWC commissioner Craig Thompson said in a conference call on Monday afternoon. "We'll have to see how we feel if that's the right number."
Thompson mentioned that he had talked to as many as five schools about joining the Mountain West in the past 24 hours, although it was unclear just how interested some of those schools actually are.

With the commissioner making that statement, I am wondering if the MWC is interested in SMU, Houston, Memphis and San Diego State (all currently slated to go to the BIG EAST next season). If that is the case, and they are willing to leave, that would make the Mountain West a 16 team super conference with some pretty solid programs.

Then there is UCONN and Cincinnati, both of which could be taken by the ACC/BIG 10. That would leave South Florida, Central Florida, Temple, East Carolina (2014), Tulane (2014), and Navy (2015). Guys, if the BIG EAST can survive, then C-USA and the Sun Belt will either not exist or look totally different than they do today.

Go TROY!

TennesseeBoyintheRockies
01-01-2013, 12:09 PM
Boise State has decided to stay in the Mountain West thus probably putting the dagger in the BIG EAST. Guys, this move could have a huge impact on how things will unfold here in our neck of the woods. San Diego State has a clause in their agreement that it can get out of their contract with the BIG EAST, at no expense, if they don't have a 'western partner school'. The Mountain West is looking for at least one more school to get their conference up to 12 football members, thus SDSU will be a logical fit. If the BIG EAST is to survive, it is my guess that they will raid C-USA again, which will then impact the Sun Belt again. It is very possible that at the end of the day, the remaining C-USA schools and the current 8 Sun Belt schools, could merge together to create a super conference, since neither will have a 12 member conference if we each stand alone.

Here is the story on Boise State:

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/8796807/boise-state-broncos-staying-mountain-west-conference-all

2013 should be a very interesting year for our future as a member of the Sun Belt Conference.

Go TROY!


Conference USA Commissioner, Britton Banowsky, won't allow the Sun Belt to fold, nor will the league be reduced to a point where a merger with CUSA will be needed. You only need 8 teams to have an FBS conference. Even if San Diego State moves back to the Mountain West, which I believe they will because they are the most attractive option among what is being thrown around, that doesn't mean the Big East will have to expand, but even if they do, it doesn't mean the end-all for Conference USA.

The way I see it is that the Big East will abandon a west division outlook and remain in the Central and Eastern timezones. By my count, the Big East will have 10 teams without Boise and San Diego State with Temple, UConn, Cincinnati, Memphis, Central Florida, South Florida, East Carolina, Tulane, Houston, and SMU. Do not forget that Navy is scheduled to join this league in football (2015), but they may seek an all-sports membership from Navy, which they could get at this point. I can't see the Big East blowing up to more than 12 either. I see Charlotte (2015) and Army as being the two most likely candidates to join the Big East, but if the league moved to 14 as many suspect, you might see any two of CUSA's Marshall, Southern Miss, and Tulsa being invited. That doesn't hurt Conference USA for members.

As it stands now, CUSA will have UTEP, North Texas, UTSA, Rice, Tulsa, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Middle Tennessee, Florida Atlantic, FIU, Marshall, and Charlotte. What if CUSA loses two of those teams? Then count on CUSA moving on New Mexico State and Western Kentucky as promised. That's it. CUSA is then back at 12.

The Sun Belt as it stands has Western Kentucky, Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, ULM, Troy, South Alabama, Texas State, and Georgia State. If the Sun Belt loses one, they will likely turn to Idaho for football only, but the greater expectation is that Georgia Southern and Appalachian State will move to the FBS.

So you see? It is highly unlikely that the Sun Belt will merge with CUSA.

Doug4Troy
01-01-2013, 12:52 PM
All this stuff makes my head hurt. Although I know it would never happen, it would be so great if this conference shuffling resulted in more push backs like Boise and SDSU; and MTSU, NT, or one of the FUs had to come crawling back to the Sun Belt because things fell through for some teams and C-USA withdrew their invitation.

Troy79
01-01-2013, 02:20 PM
I have to believe that the Mountain West will expand beyond their 11 current teams. The Big East will likely lose San Diego State, SMU, Houston to the MWC and it is said that their commissioner is interested in UTEP from C-USA. The big catch for the MWC would be Brigham Young, if they decide to get back in a conference.

With those prospective moves, in order for the Big East to survive, they would again pilfer from C-USA. It is said that Navy is now having second thoughts about joining the Big East so they will be forced to rebuild the conference again.
With all the vacant slots left in the BE, it looks to me like they will take about half the remaining C-USA schools so that is why I believe that will only leave about 8 teams in C-USA when the dust settles, thus making it attractive to merge with the Sun Belt to make a super conference.

USA's current 14-team league is expected to be split into two divisions:

East - FAU, FIU, Marshall, Southern Miss, UAB, Charlotte and ODU

West - Louisiana Tech, North Texas, Rice, Texas San Antonio, Middle Tennessee, Tulsa and UTEP.

If the MWC takes UTEP, and the Big East takes 3 teams from C-USA to replace SMU, Houston, and San Diego State, that will leave C-USA with a ten team conference. My guess is that UCONN and Cincinnati will leave the Big East as well so that would now make them take two additional C-USA teams, thus reducing them an eight team league, just like the Sun Belt. This is the reason why I believe you will see the merger of the two leagues, one sixteen team super conference.

In this scenario, due to geography, I could see the remaining eight C-USA teams to be Southern Mississippi, UAB, Louisiana Tech, North Texas, Rice, Texas San Antonio, Tulsa and Middle Tennessee State.

Thus, below is my prediction for the two divisions of the new super conference based on geography:

East

Georgia State
Middle Tennessee
Western Kentucky
South Alabama
UAB
Southern Mississippi
Louisiana Monroe
TROY

West

North Texas
Texas San Antonio
Texas State
Rice
Tulsa
Arkansas State
Louisiana Lafayette
Louisiana Tech

I think this new conference set up would be the most beneficial for these remaining teams. We would all play 7 division games (all within approximately 3 to 6 hours from Troy) and then at least one non-division conference game each year, thus making sure we all have 4 home conference games each season. We could then play one 1-AA game at home each season, one big money road game each year, and then maybe have a couple of games that would rotate with a home and away every other season (like Tulane, Memphis, Army, Navy, etc) to allow us to host a total of six home games each year.

Guys, it is all about survival and if we stay status-quo, we will likely be left standing at the alter with no one to marry!

This is just my opinion but I could see where a structure like this would allow us to have a chance to be relevant as a D-1 conference. This would also be a good set-up for basketball and baseball. We may have to say good-bye to Texas Arlington and UALR or either add two teams in the East division for non-football sports to make two 10 team divisions for basketball and baseball.

Go TROY!

TennesseeBoyintheRockies
01-01-2013, 02:58 PM
UTEP was mentioned on the Mountain West radar BEFORE the Catholic 7 announced their departure from the Big East. When that happened, Thompson knew he had a shot of bringing back Boise and San Diego State, which means his conference doesn't need Houston, UTEP, or Tulsa. The conference was just fine before without those schools, and it will be just fine now without those schools. The Mountain West has never sought to be an overbloated conference like the Mid-American Conference. It gained prestige as a 9- or 10-member conference, but with Boise wanting to stay in the league, it is at 11 only because it invited Utah State and San Jose State to fill the void left by Boise and San Diego State. The only school the Mountain West will bring into its fold at this point will be San Diego State. They will not expand beyond 12. Thompson knows there is no reason for the Mountain West to expand beyond 12, and we all see this to be the case. The Big East will just scrounge for other members which they could get from the MAC and CUSA. It won't cause the destruction of any current conference, and there is no way in the world BYU ever drops its mission to play teams from across the country via a conference affiliation, nor is there anyway in the world CUSA retracts its invitations to North Texas, Florida Atlantic, FIU, or Middle Tennessee. CUSA is more attractive to those schools now even without ECU, Houston, SMU, and UCF. If for some reason any of those schools decided to come back to CUSA, which they won't, then that just makes CUSA that much more attractive.

The Sun Belt will not see a return from the four members it lost.

Troy79
01-01-2013, 03:14 PM
UTEP was mentioned on the Mountain West radar BEFORE the Catholic 7 announced their departure from the Big East. When that happened, Thompson knew he had a shot of bringing back Boise and San Diego State, which means his conference doesn't need Houston, UTEP, or Tulsa. The conference was just fine before without those schools, and it will be just fine now without those schools. The Mountain West has never sought to be an overbloated conference like the Mid-American Conference. It gained prestige as a 9- or 10-member conference, but with Boise wanting to stay in the league, it is at 11 only because it invited Utah State and San Jose State to fill the void left by Boise and San Diego State. The only school the Mountain West will bring into its fold at this point will be San Diego State. They will not expand beyond 12. Thompson knows there is no reason for the Mountain West to expand beyond 12, and we all see this to be the case. The Big East will just scrounge for other members which they could get from the MAC and CUSA. It won't cause the destruction of any current conference, and there is no way in the world BYU ever drops its mission to play teams from across the country via a conference affiliation, nor is there anyway in the world CUSA retracts its invitations to North Texas, Florida Atlantic, FIU, or Middle Tennessee. CUSA is more attractive to those schools now even without ECU, Houston, SMU, and UCF. If for some reason any of those schools decided to come back to CUSA, which they won't, then that just makes CUSA that much more attractive.

The Sun Belt will not see a return from the four members it lost.

TennesseeBoy, I have to challenge your statement about the MWC commissioner having 'no reason to expand beyond 12 teams' when he was quoted yesterday, after Boise came back on board, by saying: "We felt stable about 10 teams, but we feel a lot more stable now that we'll have 11," MWC commissioner Craig Thompson said in a conference call on Monday afternoon. "We'll have to see how we feel if that's the right number."
Thompson mentioned that he had talked to as many as five schools about joining the Mountain West in the past 24 hours, although it was unclear just how interested some of those schools actually are. With the unique pay structure for television money for the MWC teams, it may actually behoove the conference to grow to a super conference level.

Go TROY!

Jericho Johnny
01-02-2013, 12:15 AM
The way things are going I halfway expect to see TROY playing in a Sunbelt with, at best, ULL, ULM, USA, and a bunch of FCS scrubs.

I don't buy the idea that there will ever be a super-conference merger between CUSA and SB.

Troy79
01-02-2013, 06:29 PM
Another interesting follow-up article about the Mountain West. Looks like San Diego State has the first right to refusal to come back to the MWC and must provide their answer by the end of this month. The article also clearly states that the commissioner has reached out to multiple schools to consider a 12 or 14 team league and specifically mentions in addition to SDSU, these schools: BYU, SMU, Houston and UTEP as prime candidates. There is no doubt that the Mountain West will be the best non-BCS confernece in the country and will create a domino effect for the Big East, C-USA and the Sun Belt.

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/8803804/mountain-west-conference-give-san-diego-state-aztecs-first-option-join

Go TROY!

Possum
01-02-2013, 11:33 PM
The way things are going I halfway expect to see TROY playing in a Sunbelt with, at best, ULL, ULM, USA, and a bunch of FCS scrubs.

I don't buy the idea that there will ever be a super-conference merger between CUSA and SB.

I can see that happening too... If that's the case, I'd rather be a FCS powerhouse then part of a scrub conference.

TrojanFanatic
01-02-2013, 11:40 PM
I don't think the Belt will be full of scrubs any time soon, but there's always the possibility that the Big East bypasses CUSA and goes straight to the Belt or other small conference