View Full Version : Tell me if I'm wrong

10-19-2004, 11:39 AM
I have been doing some calculating, and I have come to the conclusion that we are not out of the race for conference champion just yet. North Texas, New Mexico State, and Arkansas both have to lose 2 more games, and we have to win out. I know it is a stretch, but I believe I have figured it out correctly.

If I am wrong, I will accept it and move on to basketball. Only 1 month before basketball begins. :lol:

10-19-2004, 12:19 PM
But we shouldn't get too excited. Here is what would have to happen.

North Texas would need to lose 2 league games. They haven't lost a single conference game in the last several years. But 2 of the following games would need to be losses for UNT:

New Mexico State @ home
Louisiana-Monroe @ home
@ Louisiana-Lafayette
Idaho @ home
@ Arkansas State

Then, NMSU would have to lose 2 more as well in these games:

@ North Texas
Middle Tennessee @ home
@ Florida Atlantic
@ Utah State

It could happen..just not likely. We can always hope, I guess!

10-19-2004, 12:48 PM
North Texas has some bumps. That NMSU game is always tough for them. For some reason, ULM always plays them tough. The ULL game for them is on the road on Friday night and the Ark State game is on the road on Thursday night.

New Mexico State's biggest hurdles will be North Texas and FAU.

Also, if Arky State runs the table, they are in. They may be the biggest long shot, but they do get several of them at home, including North Texas.

Amazingly, if Middle Tennesee runs the table and North Texas loses 2 more or Arky State loses one more, based on percentage then THEY go to New Orleans because they play 8 games instead of 7 like everyone else. 6-2 is a better percentage than 5-2.

Those are just the three most likely ones, but in reality, anyone can still win it. No one has been mathematically eliminated...yet.

There is no such thing as a "tie breaker" in deciding who goes to the bowl. If us and Arky State both had two losses then the NO bowl wouldn't neccesarily pick Arky State. The bowl will look at things like "How many fans will they bring to the game?" "How much money will the fans spend and how long will they stay?" "Who has the best "name value" and can get the best TV ratings."

Some of those factors really favor Troy. North Texas is close to the bottom in attendance this year and they also have no OOC wins. Utah State, NMSU, and Idaho are leaving for the WAC so the Sunbelt and the New Orleans bowl will take any out they can not to send one of them. This LSU game is huge in the respect that it would be another "name" win for us and help us in any tie and other bowls might be open because some of the big boys are not going to be able to fufil their bowl commitments.

We're no longer in control of our bowl situation, but it is still possible for us to go. We just need to win and let the rest take care of itself.

10-19-2004, 01:17 PM
North Texas
The Mean Green can do it the easy way. Win out. They host NMSU, ULM, and Idaho and travel to ULL and ASU. With one loss UNT needs to avoid tying any of the schools located east of Denton. The Wyndham New Orleans Bowl isn't going to want a fourth trip from UNT, especially with finals going on. Same situation for a 2 loss scenario, except if UNT loses two they need MTSU to lose one more to avoid letting MTSU win outright (6-2 beats 5-2 in winning percentage).

New Mexico State
Win out and hope no one located east of Las Cruces ties them or lose one more and pray none of the teams they tie with finishes 6-5 or better. The Aggies have conference games left at North Texas, FAU and Utah State. They host MTSU and have a non-conference game with FIU. If NMSU wins out and ends up in a tie with anyone east of Las Cruces, the Aggies are going to have to hope that 7-4 will draw some interest from one of the six or so bowls in danger of being short. Best hopes would be Humanitarian or Silicon Valley that could be short if the ACC or Pac-10 send two to the BCS.

Arkansas State
Win out. The Indians have to travel to ULL and Idaho and host USU and UNT. If ASU wins out only UNT, NMSU, and ULL are threats to tie. ASU would get the nod over UNT and NMSU, then it becomes a calculation on the bowl's part as to whether ASU or ULM brings more fans in the event of a tie. If ASU loses one more a tie is possible but at 5-6 the Wyndham New Orleans Bowl will pass.

UL Monroe
Win out. The Indians have to travel to FAU, UNT and MTSU and host USU and ULL. Winning out gives them nothing worse than a tie and would be picked over NMSU, or UNT while a tie with ASU is a crap-shoot for both Indians. Lose one more and ULM is in the mix for a big tie at 5-2 (if MTSU loses) and would stil have a winning record giving them the spot if none of the schools they tie with are 6-5 or better.

Win out and hope UNT drops 2 while ASU, NMSU, and ULM each lose one more. The Trojans have Idaho, FAU and MTSU at home and travel to ULL. In a situation where several teams tie at 5-2 Troy would be no worse than 7-4 and probably going to New Orleans.

UL Lafayette
Win out and hope UNT, MTSU, and NMSU each loses one more. Remaining schedule ASU, UNT, and Troy at home and a road trip to ULM. Caught in a tie at 5-2, ULL would be the likely pick of the Wyndham New Orleans Bowl.

Middle Tennessee
Win out and hope UNT drops two and that ASU loses one more. MTSU has Idaho, USU and ULM coming in and goes to NMSU and Troy. If everyone has at least two losses along with MTSU, the Blue Raiders win the conference out-right.

Has to win out and needs UNT, NMSU and ULM to lose one more after that. Vandals host ASU but travel to MTSU, Troy and UNT. Caught in a tie at 5-2 Idaho unlikely to be considered by Wyndham New Orleans Bowl unless they defeat Hawaii as well and no one they tie with is 6-5 or better. If Idaho were to win out they aren't likely to get any bowl consideration unless Utah qualifies for BCS and MWC fails to send a team to Memphis and Boise State goes AND ACC fails to qualify enough teams for Humanitarian.

Utah State
Has to win out and needs UNT to drop 2. Aggies host NMSU but travel to MTSU, ULM and ASU. In a 5-2 tie unlikely to get picked unless no one east of them is 6-5 or better. Same scenario as Idaho for other bowl consideration.